Satellite shows Russia shielding warplanes at 14 airfields

## Peeking Behind the Curtain: Satellite Images Reveal Russia's Efforts to Shield Warplanes at 14 Airfields

The war in Ukraine has become a theatre of unprecedented transparency, with open-source intelligence (OSINT) playing a crucial role in monitoring troop movements, documenting war crimes, and tracking the evolution of military strategy. Recent satellite imagery has provided compelling evidence that Russia is actively engaged in shielding its warplanes from potential Ukrainian attacks at at least 14 airfields across the country and occupied territories. This reveals a growing concern about the vulnerability of its air assets and a strategic shift in bolstering their survivability.

This post will delve into what these images reveal, the types of shielding employed, the potential motivations behind these measures, and the implications for the ongoing conflict.

Decoding the Satellite Images: What are we seeing?

The satellite images, analyzed by various open-source intelligence groups like Molfar and highlighted by major news outlets, show a variety of techniques being used to protect Russian warplanes. These aren't just casual coverings; they are deliberate and systematic implementations of shielding measures, suggesting a concerted effort. Here's a breakdown of what can be observed:

Tire Barriers and Earth Berms: One of the most prevalent tactics involves surrounding aircraft with walls of tires and/or piles of earth. This is particularly evident at airfields further from the frontlines, indicating a need for more robust and long-term protection.

Camouflage Netting and Deception: Aircraft are frequently draped with camouflage netting, designed to blend them into the surrounding environment and disrupt visual identification from above, be it by satellites, drones, or even potential air raids. In some cases, decoy aircraft, made from inflatable materials or other low-cost substitutes, have been deployed to further confuse targeting.

Protective Shelters (HAS - Hardened Aircraft Shelters): While not a new concept, there is evidence of existing hardened aircraft shelters being utilized and potentially upgraded. These are reinforced concrete structures designed to withstand direct hits from munitions.

Relocation and Dispersal: While not directly shielding, the practice of dispersing aircraft across different airfields and within airfields to multiple parking areas is also evident. This complicates targeting efforts and reduces the risk of a single strike crippling a large number of aircraft.

Painted Silhouettes and Decoys: Some reports suggest aircraft are being painted with lighter colors or silhouettes to reduce their thermal signatures and potentially confuse heat-seeking missiles.

Why Shield Warplanes Now? Motivation and Context

The efforts to shield warplanes at this scale indicate a clear shift in Russian military thinking. Several factors likely contribute to this change:

Growing Ukrainian Strike Capabilities: Ukraine has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to strike targets deep within Russian-controlled territory. This includes successful drone attacks on airfields, oil depots, and even strategic bomber bases. The acquisition of longer-range missiles like the Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG, supplied by the UK and France respectively, has further increased the threat to Russian air assets.

Vulnerability of Airfields: Airfields are inherently vulnerable targets. Their large, open spaces and the presence of parked aircraft make them prime targets for precision strikes. Fuel depots and ammunition stores on airfields also represent significant secondary explosion risks.

Preservation of Strategic Air Power: The Russian Air Force is a crucial component of Russia's military strength. Protecting its aircraft is essential for maintaining air superiority, conducting ground attack missions, and deterring further attacks by Ukraine. Losing a significant number of aircraft would severely hamper Russia's ability to achieve its objectives in Ukraine.

Lessons Learned from the Conflict: The war in Ukraine has been a harsh learning experience for both sides. Russia has witnessed the effectiveness of Ukrainian asymmetric warfare tactics, including the use of drones and long-range missiles. This has likely prompted a reassessment of its own air defense posture and a greater emphasis on protecting its assets.

Resource Constraints and Prioritization: Shielding existing aircraft is often more cost-effective than replacing them. Faced with economic sanctions and the challenges of wartime production, Russia may be prioritizing the preservation of its existing fleet over the procurement of new aircraft.

The Effectiveness of Shielding Measures: A Mixed Bag

While these shielding measures undoubtedly offer some degree of protection, their effectiveness is not guaranteed.

Tire Barriers and Earth Berms: While they can provide protection against shrapnel and smaller drone attacks, they are unlikely to withstand direct hits from larger missiles or bombs. They may also hinder quick deployment and maintenance of the aircraft.

Camouflage Netting: Effective against visual and potentially infrared detection, but susceptible to detection using radar or other sensors. Their effectiveness diminishes significantly in poor weather conditions.

Hardened Aircraft Shelters: Offer the best protection against direct hits, but are expensive to build and maintain. The effectiveness depends on the strength of the structure and the type of munition used.

Relocation and Dispersal: Forces the attacker to spread their resources and complicates targeting, but requires significant logistical support and infrastructure.

Ultimately, the effectiveness of these shielding measures will depend on the specific circumstances of each attack, the type of weapon used, and the quality of Russian air defenses.

Implications for the Ongoing Conflict

The Russian effort to shield its warplanes has several important implications for the ongoing conflict:

Increased Operational Costs: Implementing and maintaining these shielding measures requires significant resources and manpower, diverting resources from other critical areas.

Shifting Battlefield Dynamics: The increased emphasis on protecting air assets suggests a more defensive posture and potentially a reduced reliance on air power in offensive operations.

Focus on Precision Strikes: Ukraine will likely need to focus on precision strikes using advanced weaponry to overcome these shielding measures and target Russian aircraft effectively.

Escalation Risk: As Ukraine demonstrates the ability to strike targets deeper inside Russian territory, the risk of escalation increases. Russia may be tempted to retaliate with more aggressive tactics, potentially targeting Ukrainian infrastructure or even NATO-supplied weapons systems.

The Information War: The release and analysis of satellite imagery provide valuable insights into Russian military strategy and capabilities. This information can be used to inform policy decisions, support Ukrainian defense efforts, and counter Russian disinformation campaigns.

Conclusion: A Sign of Changing Times

The satellite imagery revealing Russia's efforts to shield its warplanes at multiple airfields paints a picture of a military adapting to a changing battlefield. It demonstrates a growing awareness of the vulnerabilities of its air assets and a strategic shift towards prioritizing their protection. While the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen, they represent a significant investment of resources and manpower, and they underscore the ongoing challenges facing Russia in its war against Ukraine. The open-source intelligence community continues to play a vital role in documenting these developments and providing crucial insights into the evolving dynamics of the conflict.